Independence Day
Gold bug alert. Here is ValuEngine's Richard Suttmeier's take on the yellow metal:
Being long gold was another popular strategy, but I warned that the high of $1266.5 in June was a failed test of monthly resistance. Quarterly support is $1140.9 with my semiannual pivot at $1218.7, and semiannual, weekly and monthly resistances at $1260.8, $1275.9 and $1279.3. Gold closed below its 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages at $1235 and $1212.1 on Thursday.
I warned that gold was peaky two weeks ago here and in a broadcast for Hedge Fund Radio (with John Thomas).
Because it is published by Covestor, I can also share with you my most recent trading history in the Interactive Brokerage account. On Monday I bought a couple of hundred shares of Portugal Telecom at $10/sh paying as well one whole dollar in commission. Yesterday, prematurely of course, I sold them at $10.57/sh again paying that buck to IB. The return for 4 days was 5.6% net of commission. Any naïve reader who wants to annualize this can work out that it comes to 51%.
My other trades are not public and will be summarized for paid subscribers only.
Over PT's extraordinary shareholder meeting on the 30th, the Lisbon government intervened to prevent a sale of Brazilian assets to the Spanish telco, Telefonica. It used its 'golden share' issued at PT's privatization. Golden shares were used by Maggie Thatcher to ease British privatizations although she was not an advocate of state controls over the economy. They were used also in France, Holland, Spain and Portugal for the same purpose by governments of the right and the left. BP, the villain in the Gulf of Mexico, once had such shares too.
Here is a first reader note which I think is important as we go into the Independence Day weekend:
"Americans are not investing directly in foreign markets. They are sucked into US institutions to do so. If an American has more than $10k aggregate held in offshore financial accounts (banks, brokers, etc.) he is required by law to report this to the US Treasury on a form separate from and in addition to checking the box on his IRS return. This terrifies people because they know that after filing this form with the Treasury they are automatically added to a list of “people of interest” who need to be watched. I am convinced this is the primary reason Americans keep their money in US institutions and, of course, is exactly why the government requires this reporting. The system is totally unfair. It’s as if Americans must stay in a designated turf – or else! Big Brother is in total control."
I think this reader, PS, has a point.
I am being lambasted by two other readers for supporting the current US Administration. So I will note that political pressure on corporations is normal not just in the USA, but globally. Politics is part of markets and cannot be left out; hence Pres. Obama's talk about “kicking ass” over BP. Or Portuguese Prime Minister Socrates' intervention against Spain's ambitions in Brazil.
The way to control political intervention is not by voting for right-wing parties (because politicking occurs with them too.) The solution is for courts to limit violations of shareholder rights by the executive or the legislature. The European Court of Justice and the EU competition authorities are taking up the cudgels against the Socratic intervention, but because it will be a slow process, I opted to take my profits (and those of my copycat followers).
Frida Ghitis and I wrote yesterday about another case in everyone's favorite Alpine democracy. Swiss courts are also having to intervene to protect shareholders following an unfair share deal between Nestle and Novartis involving a US listed company.
Now for the other mail, from reader LK, whom I do not agree with:
To be quite clear: this Administration is the worst in history. Obama – which many are beginning to call “Zero” has the least experience in running anything – he never ran a business, never had a substantive job, and, his advisors have the least experience in running anything of any administration as well (I have the figures if you need to see them to attempt to dispute them). The one good thing is: it is causing people across America to wake up and begin to rise up against this lunacy. My suggestion: don’t mention Zero anymore… it is not an advantage to you and doesn’t do you any credit any longer. It causes people to lose confidence in your decisions – all of them – because support of his policies lacks wisdom.
I hope you too begin to gain some revelation of the direction in which this country is heading with Zero at the helm along with his corrupt entourage. Bribery, payoff, lies and deception have become the name of the game out of Washington, but, I believe (thank goodness) that the people of this nation are started to say, “No way – no longer.” Your Dems are going to be thrown out where they belong – on the street. Perhaps then they will take a good look at themselves and see what a bad – disgusting example they’ve been to us all.
There will be no newsletter Monday because of the holiday. News below about Switzerland, Greece, China, India, Britain, France, Belgium, Italy, and The Netherlands.